Wednesday Evening

Here are a series of links that all seemed to cross my radar almost simultaneously. The first has to do with polls, specifically the 538 Poll. They claim to use Beysian methods to extract meta-data from published polls to .. well, blow more smoke I guess. On the various poll websites there is a kerfluffle regarding landline vs. cell, various weighing methodologies, and enough sigmas, deltas, and probability densities to induce MEGO. A much more pertinent question is who designs the questions, the client or the pollster, do the polling compainies know the desired result (read: cui bono) before or after submitting the bill, who the heck do they poll (have you ever been contacted, your family, your friends?) and how often are these numbers invented on the fly by journalists looking to add some scientifical gravatas to a partisan fluff piece?

• John Zogby's Open Letter to Nate Silver: John Zogby wrote an open letter to Nate Silver that is typically seen as an expression of emotion and clash of egos. But in my view, the deeper reality it revealed between the lines was that 538 has created a real business model problem for pollsters.

Now, while Israel is away from the penumbra of the frothing-mouth crew, some of the more informed opinions are having their say.

• Enforces consensus, jettisons democracy: I have the unenviable task of telling you tonight about the state of the State of Israel. In short, it's not good. I've been following Israeli politics since I was a teenager in 1967 and I don't think I've ever felt more alarmed and depressed about what is happening within Israel.
• Discrimination against Arabs in Israel: The possibility of filing civil suits in cases of discrimination in public accommodations is a relatively recent development in Israeli law. It has developed in both case law and statutes. In the last decade, Israeli courts have applied the constitutional right to equality to relationships between private parties through the use of private law doctrines. (pdf.)

The next set is about good old-fashioned class war. As a small town farm kid, I was made aware that some coasted and some had to work hard to break even. This isn't news to most, but possession of the proper accent and vocabulary, mannerisms and assumptions, and a name or two to drop go a lot further than hard work or acumin in greasing the rail and getting your shot. Cranky attitude to be sure, but the best and brightest seem to have a consensus about their own significance that isn't shared by reality at large.

• The Roots of White Anxiety: But cultural biases seem to be at work as well. Nieli highlights one of the study’s more remarkable findings: while most extracurricular activities increase your odds of admission to an elite school, holding a leadership role or winning awards in organizations like high school R.O.T.C., 4-H clubs and Future Farmers of America actually works against your chances. Consciously or unconsciously, the gatekeepers of elite education seem to incline against candidates who seem too stereotypically rural or right-wing or “Red America.”
• The Trouble With Meritocracy: For anyone with an appropriate skepticism toward meritocracy and its works, there’s an obvious critique of my suggestion, in today’s column, that America might be better off if our top-flight colleges welcomed more students from demographics — the white working class, rural America, evangelical Christians, etc. — that are currently viewed with suspicion and hostility by the highly-educated elite.
• The American Ruling Class: When this majority discovered that virtually no one in a position of power in either party or with a national voice would take their objections seriously, that decisions about their money were being made in bipartisan backroom deals with interested parties, and that the laws on these matters were being voted by people who had not read them, the term "political class" came into use.
• The Class War We Need: The rich are different from you and me. They know how to game the system.

Congress has just reviewed the use of Predator Drones along the southern border. This doesn't feel right to me for several reasons. Giving some enforcement hire the ability to play video games, with real world consequences several states away, from a bunker in Nevada? Face it, gamers excel in slipping out from underneath adult supervision. That's part of the game. The establishment of a regular patrol area will mean the establishment of fixed communication and command functions. Perfect for crackers who need some time to break in. I would think that some in the military would see this as a potential security hole for their own weapons. The crash and burn rate for UAVs is currently about 10 times that of manned flights, and they cost a bundle. If one police agency has them, everybody needs them. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

• A hidden world, growing beyond control: The top-secret world the government created in response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has become so large, so unwieldy and so secretive that no one knows how much money it costs, how many people it employs, how many programs exist within it or exactly how many agencies do the same work.
• Jaysen A. Yochim, Major, US Army: The Vulnerabilities of Unmanned Aircraft System Common Data Links to Electronic Attack. (pdf)

And finally the Front Porch Republic, a multi author blog that sways between grounded common sense and some of the most inanely dense philosophical claptrap you've ever decided to skip over.(but I like it anyway)

• The Information Age Springs a Definitive Leak: Funny enough, the barking message is on the blank side of a sign that originally advertised a local Reggae Music Festival. On the furiously adapted re-use side however, it now proclaims : “NUKE THE OIL SPILL”. So much for bongs and a funky back beat, this new age has a more emphatic solution: atom-splitting bombs.